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mrthrifty

421 Posts.

18/07/14

04:15

Post #: 13677759
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Originally posted by blackhat ↑

scumbo,

all good conversation, agreed. I believe that there are much less conspiracies than we's like to think. what investors like to see is progress and all we have to gauge this on is output from the Directors. The directors are not telling us about the reasons for the additional funds into the lowest end of the capital market. they should be doing this, but because they don't, investors get nervous or suspicious. openness avoids the suspicious from being negative.
i do believe that this CR is the direct cause of the 20% drop. After all the good news, plus the gas sales deal, the SP should have gone up by 20%. I'd like to know what these other forces are at play. I don't see anything in the open forum that indicates this except for some conspiracy theories (which do carry some small amount of credibility based on circumstantial evidence).
76H also went about 50% over budget and this did cause huge problems. I remember a lack of disclosure until the point was reached where money had to be raised. I remember that there was a huge dispute with GSPC about the overspend. Are we seeing a repeat?
see what I mean about the impact of a lack of disclosure? the money men begin to doubt that they are being dealt an honest hand. Openness solves this problem most times.
What peeves me most is the apparent lack of planning, when a competent team plans a project, they do a risk analysis and surely overspend and non payment by the Indian Government would be high on that risk list. So where was the planning? An overspend of 40% is an indication of poor budgeting or poor execution. Good budgets allow for upsets and given the upsets were mostly time painful, and there was never any indication of overspend when the rig went down for 2 weeks, you might draw the conclusion that there has been poor performance. It has now taken 5 months to do a job that most can do in 4-6 weeks, maybe that's part of it. How on earth are we going to see the SP kick past the option exercise price? Is there a fear that another 200 million shares might be created when 200 million convert to full shares? We will have 800 million shares on the board!!! maybe this is the driver for the money men's actions. Where are the facts?

good chat, thanks for your input.

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Agreed Blackhat. I do not pay too much attn to any conspiracy theories. Easiest and cheapest way to fund raise at this juncture is for RM to get the oppies in the money. 30 mill would help underpin the sp going forward and despite a little dilution (25%) would maintain a positive market sentiment.
800 mill shares is not too heavy for a producing oil and gas outfit with huge prospects.

OEX Price at posting: 11.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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CR with Darwin, page-32

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