Yes Peter La Fleur, that's the jiggy jiggy of it all. If the large speculators have unwound their longs and are close to minimum core holdings (which can be viewed as a market and risk hedge) then it's probable the speculators will soon start rebuilding long positions, hence, gold will rise and so will OI as the commercials take the short side.
Building the relationship between the JPY and gold over this period of time is much harder to explain and understand!?
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