When change comes to the gold market it is often Taylor Swift....

When change comes to the gold market it is often Taylor Swift.

Overall sentiment in COT data has become balanced quickly and is showing similar levels to previous peaks at ~US$1,300. Gold has not been able to break this resistance and COT data is pointing to caution here. With Jackson Hole tonight, gold could explode either way...

Do we sell some now and buy back Monday if it takes out US$1,300 or do you go for it and if wrong, dump on Monday? Whatever you decide, I expect tonight is the night for serious moves!

To the gold COT charts...



Commercials (orange) are net short and are of similar position size to longs of large speculators (blue). Both parties have positioning close to previous peaks at ~US$1,300.



Overall market positioning (net commercial + large spec) is showing the lowest net short position going back to January 2016, this is the only anomaly in the data that could point to gold busting through resistance and going higher. If you look at prior peak above US$1,350 net overall positions were short >30k contracts, currently 8.9k.



Commercials have unwound their longs and added shorts to previous levels of ~US$1,300.



Large speculators have unwound their massive short position and added longs to previous levels of ~US$1,300.

The COT data is used as a medium term gold timing tool ( @AverageJoe not for short term day trading!) and is pointing to caution at this point of resistance. With Jackson Hole tonight, gold could break out either way. As shown in the past, overall short positions are contracting and going in the wrong direction compared to when gold traded +US$1,350 around this time last year. I've been bullish gold for the past six weeks (since the epic build up in large speculator short positions), I am now taking a stance of neutral to negative considering the prolific resistance of ~Us$1,300.

And that folks is the POG according to Tay Tay!