I hate to barge in as I know bashing this company is now the "cool" thing to do on here. Heck, it is hard to argue though (as just a few seem to still care to do) when you look at the SP graph. It's an absolute you know what show! No doubt the same familiar posters will be on here daily reminding holders of how doomed we all are.
Having said that, let' me be clear about something though. No matter which camp you are in at the moment, IMHO of course, there will be one thing and one thing ONLY that will dictate the SP of AVL over the next 12 months. I'll go on record as saying that it won't be the price of vanadium. It won't be the countless updates on the ballooning size of the resource. It won't be an air tight DFS due out this year no matter what the numbers say, and I'd even go so far as to say that it won't be the commissioning of these massive vanadium batteries I keep reading about.
I believe that AVL will either be sitting at @1c or over 10c by this time next year. If we are to be at the higher end of that spectrum this company must have a funding partner locked in at some point during that time line. Nothing more, nothing less. I understand that isn't a huge amount of time, but I personally don't believe that it should be too difficult of a task, and yes, if vanadium stays at these price levels, of course it will be that much easier.
I guess now that I've said that raising the money shouldn't be too difficult it's only right that I give a very generic overview of how I think a deal could look. I think I've posted something before, but what the heck. I will not fill in my specific numbers, as if you are a genuine holder of this company and wish to spend the time working the totals out, then you can draw your own conclusions. Probably a bigger reason though (if the truth be known) is that I don't know any of you, and quite frankly only a handful of posters on here I'd believe managed to graduate from high school, let alone hold enough shares to worry me with their opinions on AVL. Before I begin, factor in any % you wish as interest for the US$350m loan.
My guess is we partner up with a steel producer. Go find out how many tonnes of vanadium each of the top 50 in the world use per annum. Then find out the value of each of these companies, and in particular the cash reserves of the public ones. Next, work out what a 10-15% discount on the amount of vanadium that AVL can produce each year is worth (based on a sliding scale if you wish, depending on the price of V). Be as conservative as you want!! Lastly, factor in what you believe the life of the mine should be as the JORC continues to grow. Old announcements should get you close. I'm not even going to confuse the issue by building a bigger mine that could handle both AVL's and TMT's output. The last thing I want is that lot back over here bashing away. How did that war between posters turn out anyway?? Maybe it would have been better to spend the time seeing how the two companies could work together. I know the answer to that so I'll just move on for another few weeks.
Anyway, if anyone is still awake that actually went through the exercise then you may have a better idea of what kind of package could be offered. Not too shabby of a return for someone who would like a guaranteed large supply of vanadium for the next 20+ years. Wow there's half an hour of my life I'll never get back!!........................
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