Originally posted by bj789
my guesstimate for finance was simply based on AUQ history. Not a single event so far has proceeded without delays in one form or another. Why should finance be an exception especially as it requires the outlay of someone else's money? Previous permit/licence granting only required signatures and they couldn't even get those in a timely manner - so when a big chunk of money is at stake?
I'll be very surprised if financing proceeds smoothly, not impossible of course, but IMO highly unlikely.
Despite my recent negativity inspired by lack of progress to date I nevertheless believe AUQ will slowly improve over time but will never be as well regarded by the market compared to similar companies operating elsewhere. I doubt AUQ will ever be anything but a very ordinary low priced stock - just my opinion - unless the KSA deal magically happens. I don't give a lot of weight to varying commodity prices that's just their nature and I'm sure the financing parties would have accounted for that in their models. So we're left with a company which has performed badly for many years with mediocre prospects into the future short of a miracle happening. For most investors the journey so far has been nothing but a dreary procession of waiting periods for little or no reward and the future doesn't promise to be that much different. On what's known so far, even with a mine in production (2 years away) what's the sp likely to be? 10-15c? I'm sorry I ever got involved with AUQ but I'll stick around a bit longer to see what happens after finance happens.
Considering what you know about KSA already, you give undue emphasis to what it could translate to. Even if we get the green light tomorrow, it will still make Oman look like a walk in the park imo.
FWIW it wasn't just a signature that took so long to secure. There were multiple revisions to the agreement which needed to be made to ensure that a solid foundation had been laid for the larger vision of Oman once again becoming a major Copper producing nation, as was once their heritage.
We aren't very patient in the west. We like our food in 15 minutes, our coffee in 5 minutes, we have self serve and drive through everything due to our impatience. The cost of all of this impatience has been a lack of endurance in most of our ventures. Throw away society.
These ancient Arab countries are looking for ways to survive the end of oil. That isn't a band-aid fix, you cant use magic spray and expect to survive another few thousand years. So they are being ultra conservative in rolling out their vision. A stitch in time etc.
I will be surprised if Oman does not exceed everybodies expectation, but it will take time, and if you have a short term plan for this investment then you probably invested in the wrong place, unfortunately.
I honestly do wish you well and hope that you manage to get your money out and move on, it is painful being invested in something that doesn't move at McDonalds service speed if you were only looking for a trade, but that should have been evident if you had done a bit of due diligence.
But dont make the mistake of thinking that this has been slow compared to western projects. Go have a look at AAR if you want to see slow realization of a base metal or gold project. WA at its finest.
