Contrary Indicator?

Research and experience tells me that when postings get as negative as they are now, that the price is likely to go up. Supporting this is the pattern of trading likely signalling that smart money is buying (be they shorters or other long-only investors).

It’s understandable that some are dismayed by continual delays, but a ’40,000 foot view’ demonstrates an incredibly viable new source of generation has (almost) been delivered to the Philippines in 2-3 years – the site was vacant before then.

Plan A for interconnection relied on competitor’s transmission lines – had they been available the 400 MW may have progressed more quickly, but this was not a permanent solution and in addition would not have handled more than the 400 MW.

Plan B requires land access but additionally will provide for interconnection for a full 2400 MW. This should be completed soon and future expansion will occur with much less friction having overcome this obstacle early.

The Philippines requires significant growth in generation – coal is difficult given the Paris accord and the agitation of the locals and the solitary Malampaya gas field (powering many LNG stations) nearing the end of its life.

My assessment is that EWC has been successful in obtaining a huge number of permits/consents through the building process and in satisfying 48 out of 49 conditions precedent for the drawdown of the loan (with the last one being land access).

I assess that the final condition is almost complete and find it interesting that with so much progress having been achieved (yes with delays) that sentiment has become so negative.

Hang in there!!