CDY 1.43% 7.1¢ cellmid limited

For those that think the order count or volumes are...

  1. 1,484 Posts.
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    For those that think the order count or volumes are representative of the demand for the stock, I suggest you are being fooled.
    My analysis suggests firstly the market’s being made by a single entity or syndicate.
    The image below shows all orders entered into the market since Dec 2017 by exchange and heat mapped by order value.
    x1.png
    As per the regions highlighted by yellow rectangles, the orders you see well away from the touch are being entered in clusters and in the space of hours. Not what you would expect from a market comprised of individual thinkers.
    When someone has true intention of buying or selling, you could expect their orders to be placed in reasonable proximity to the touch (max 10 ticks).
    The highlighted orders are also well away from the touch. Without pulling out statistics, just looking at 10 years of historic price moves, these orders have close to zero chance of being hit in a price spike. It’s hard to see that they exists for any reason other then to influence sentiment.

    The image below shows clusters of orders being pulled on the same day after being in market for a considerable period. It highly unlikely that this is multiple entities.
    x2.png
    There is also a direct relationship between the bid ask – often the opposing side leads (i.e. new orders added to the offer far from the touch 1 day before supporting bids are pulled) highlighted more recently with the red lines showing the point in time where multiple bids/ask were placed/pulled.
    x3.png
    A busy chart but the green shading shows the large bids are genuine and happy to stay close to the touch and get hit.


    The upper & lower thick light blue lines are overlays showing the average VWAP of the bid & offer respectively. The middle thick light blue line is the midpoint between the two.
    It tracks very closely to price indicating this (or a derivative arriving at the same outcome) is being used as the fair price calculation by the market maker.
    With this theory, the driver behind price action is seeking liquidity so large low bids likely have a negative impact on CDY price and large far offers are actually a positive.


    Offers are thinner and tend to stay safe from the action many ticks above the touch (Today's larger orders are offers and at 68c). Either they’re orders in place to influence sentiment or there making a market and expect price to move to 68c next stop.

    Last edited by Trae: 05/06/18
 
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