Entropylord,Definitely agree with the AWE post Tui dilemma (not...

Entropylord,

Definitely agree with the AWE post Tui dilemma (not withstanding the possibility of another upgrade in reserves to postpone the inevitable). However, I am not as convinced with the no life after Cliff head theory.

Cliffhead/Arrowsmith may well produce a lot more oil than currently thought. From Roc Oils figures, Cliff Head has 67 mmbls of initial oil in place and a currently postulated recovery factor of approx 23%.

Cliff Heads first saving grace is that it has a relatively high permeability to porosity ratio which may well facilitate higher final production. There are also small satellite prospects within a radius of 5km that could still be tied back to the current infrastructure if they prove to be commercial.

Just as an aside, Roc has put forward in at least one of its presentations (Corporate and Technical overview Jan 06) that there are 250 mmbls of collective gross oil reserve potential contained within a dozen or more prospects and leads in the general vicinity of the Cliff Head oil field (WA-286 and more so in T/15). Not that these would be tied back to Cliff Head, rather the theory exists that there is a lot of potential left to investigate.

T/15 should have seen a lot more action than it has to date and the recent maybe - maybe not drilling of D-2 raises a few questions about Rocs and AWEs motives.

Dunsborough has already proved that the JVs mapping is some what inaccurate as D-2 has come in 25 metres high to prognosis. The OWC and in turn the areal closure will tell a lot when they are finally released.

Part of the problem with ARQ, AWE & ROC is that they are all looking over their shoulders and holding they cards close to their chests.
I can only presume they eye each other up and down and at the same time, manage their own image so as not to look too good or too bad.

MI