BUD 0.00% 4.3¢ buddy technologies ltd

Conference/Tweets/Presentations/News, page-915

  1. 174 Posts.
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    An exciting week approaching....
    This data is 6 months or so old. Perhaps@Tradewench can find a more update version.!!
    Some will argue that LIFX is not a tech coy. I disagree. Its not pure tech but with Bud and its platform it is tech play.
    BUD technologies will be categories in this group. So its multiples will be with these ranges. Also not most of the tech coy are not growing revenues 70-100% yoy. The average is around 30%.
    I though this might give punters an understanding of how/why coy can have a massive range in valuations.
    IMHO when we attempt to price LIFX without Buddy, we can use fwd revenue numbers and fwd earning multiples (and add in the 70-100% yoy growth.)
    Based on fwd estimates---here is my range of valuation.
    LIFX net revenue in CY 2018 was $A38.5m. ( gross rev was $45m...unsure what these above numbers are using but lets be conservative and use NET REV ) So revenue 2019 can expected to be $A65m - $A77m. ( note however the vendor has an earn out at $70musd ( approx A$100m).

    On the average 6.0 enterprise value/ revenue that prices LIFX enterprise value at between $A390m- $A462m. With 1.8b shares on issue thats a value of $0.21c-$0.26c.
    Lifx have forecast profitability in Cy 2019. The last quarter of 2018 was profitable. From my understanding of tech companies that have a 30%-40% gross margin, end up with a 10-12% net margin. LIFX gross margin is around 29% and anticipated to rise to 34%, with a 10% net margin with Trumps 12.5% tariffs in place. That new number will jump significantly if the tariffs are removed. So a $65m-$77m revenue number results in a Earning number of $A6.5m- $A7.7m.
    On the average PE ( fwd) multiple of 26.7 the $173m - $A205m ( 9.6c - 11.4c)

    Thus IMHO the lifx coy could have a value of $A173m - $A462m ( 9.6c - 26c )
    The next questions are ....what value does buddy ohm and cloud business have if it can breakeven in CY 2019?? What value can access to the capital markets for working capital multiple the LIFX numbers by? What value will both companies ( management and tech ) add to each other?

    As always this is my opinion and not advice. DYOR and HOLDTIGHT.

 
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