All the points you make are fair, Mars. For the sake of clarity,...

All the points you make are fair, Mars.
For the sake of clarity, I attach very little probability to the event of immediate liquidation of the company.
What looks more likely to me, as I said above, is a gradual and partial disposal of assets over a medium/long period of time, which is what has actually been happening so far.
The additional 20% buffer I took from the historical recovery rate (itself subject to debate, as you say) was to account for the time value of money and possible further dilutive events down the line (losses, writedowns, cap raisings, you name it).
You can argue that taking the upfront liquidation formula and bumping the recovery rate to factor in all that is too much of an approximation, when it comes to assessing if something qualifies as suitable for investment, and that too would be a fair (albeit subjective) observation.
According to my personal metrics and risk appetite it is enough to justify initiating a speculative position.
Cheers.