I am very unconvinced that your analysis incorporates sufficient...

I am very unconvinced that your analysis incorporates sufficient conservatism, in terms of what would happen if the liquidators were called in. Firstly, you are assuming 100% recovery on current assets. I suspect a recovery on recievables, closer to 75%, may be more prudent. Also, assuming that AHFS can achieve 100%, strongly suspect, is unwise.

With regards to PPE, in a liquidation scenario, might only achieve 20%, perhaps (who knows).

Also, i'm not sure i'm in full agreement with @madamswer previous estimation of recovery rates on ongoing plant & equipment sales (in non-firesale circumstances). His analysis assumed that impairments applied to P&E were applied uniformly across the board. However, i suspect (though i may be wrong) that the impairments will generally have been applied to a select quantity of equipment. What's more, it's quite possible (likely?) that equipment moved to the AHFS pool (which was subject to additional impairment at the time of transfer) was selected from previously impaired equipment. The equipment disposed each year has roughly matched the average AHFS balance, and so i assume the bulk of sales have come from AHFS (previously i suggested otherwise, but i think i was wrong). So the bottom line, i am suggesting, is that recovery rates may be substantially lower than what Madam previously suggested.

On a side issue, i also wonder about the risk of a capital raising to please the bankers. This would be massuvely dilutionary and even more damaging to existing shareholders, i would think, than a liquidation. I note that the value of shareholdings by directors, is quite small compared to their renumeration. On this basis, directors have every incentive to guarantee the 'going concern' viability of the business, even if that can only be guaranteed via a capital raising.

I also note that a massively dilutionary capital raising was made in FY2010. This was done without shareholder approval, as far as i can tell. I am not expert enough on the legalities regarding this sort of thing, so perhaps others can comment.

Cheers, Mars