CDY 1.43% 7.1¢ cellmid limited

Rocket, I was interested to read your comments re market...

  1. 164 Posts.
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    Rocket, I was interested to read your comments re market manipulation and wonder whether the "manipulators" may be outsmarting themselves. I have plugged in some numbers using your hypothetical situation and come up with the following scenario:

    Current situation
    Current holdings in two accounts:
    50,000 shares bought @40c = $20,000
    50,000 shares bought @30c = $15,000
    Total 100,000 shares @ $35,000 cost, value @30c (falling market) = $30,000
    A. Manipulation model
    Manipulator then sells 50,000 shares to himself @25c.
    He still has 100,000 shares but they are worth only 25c, so the value of his holding is $25,000
    He then "accumulates" a further 50,000 shares @25c at a cost of $12,500
    So now he has 150,000 shares which cost $47,500 and are worth $37,500.
    B. Market model
    However, if he was not active in manipulating the market downwards....
    He would retain his 100,000 shares which cost $35,000 and are worth 30c each or a total of $30,000
    He then buys a further 50,000 shares @30c for $15,000.
    So now he has 150,000 shares which cost $50,000 and are worth $45,000.
    He's got the same number of shares as the "manipulator", it's cost him $2,500 more, but the value of his holdings is worth $7,500 more.

    Not sure what type of investor you are, but I think most of us would prefer the "market" model in this scenario.
    I know this is a simplistic example, and I understand that the figures can be "manipulated" but at least in this one scenario (and I'm sure there would be many more), then the manipulator has outsmarted himself.
 
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