Hi “Rocket”
Seems a fair question that deserves an adequate answer. I thought my recent posts were pretty clear, although some extra thought was called for in a couple of them.
My opinion would be based on the same amount of factual evidence for the cause of the recent price decline that everyone else has. That is, zero. If anyone has any they’re keeping it a secret. None has been articulated on the CDY forum. So my guess would be as good as anyone else’s.
In terms of knocking expressed opinions, I attempt to make the point that those based on imagination rather than evidence can have a destructively misleading influence on others’ emotionally based decisions, with consequent flow on to the share price
It is worth noting that this -58% fall (57c to 24c Apr18-Dec18) is quite characteristic of CDY’s price history. The stock survived similar Mar13-Jul13 ($1.00 to 44c, -56%), Aug15-Apr16 (88c to 32c, -64%), and Apr-17-Nov17 (80c to 35c, -56%) declines over the last few years without being taken out or privatised, and I see no evidence that the situation is any different this time. This is the type of conclusion I believe an ASIC analyst would be inclined to reach if requested, unless evidence to the contrary is provided.
Worth noting though that those past steep falls were each followed by equally steep price rises (averaging +109%).
If I interpret your request as for a more general opinion on the likelihood of the share price being manipulated then again I believe I have given that on a number of occasions. It is clear that the means to facilitate manipulation of all stocks is available on all global markets, and in my last post I used the phrase ‘regulatory approved practices’ intentionally. Primary targets are early-growth micro- or mid-cap companies with proportionally high retail shareholder profiles, and CDY fits that description well.
Apart from HFT allowing a 1-share trade at closing auction to consistently reduce the ongoing price, stocks are available to trade on more than one market (one lit, one dark), and there is no requirement that both buy and sell orders need to be placed on the same market. For example, you could consider the benefit to an accumulator of restricting small sell orders to a lit market whilst buy orders are placed through a dark pool if available. CDY is at a stage where it is likely to attract accumulation.
The overall message is that, as a result of the potential that computerised trading allows, share prices are far less likely to settle anywhere near fair value than through the ‘open call’ mechanism that ceased decades ago. Retail investors who recognise this should be less vulnerable to manipulation by falling prices.
Hope this clarifies.
Cheers
T7
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