Good to see a bit of discussion, as this has been a stock of interest to me since listing, always good to get differing opinions.
a few thoughts:
While STAT may have a lead in European football, CAT has more experience in more sports, which I think is more important as different sports place different importance on metrics eg Ice hockey v cricket and data is the business at the end of the day. Also CAT has stated in the past that it has taken them time to find the best metrics to use when entering new sports so they has a head start which will remain.
STAT has stayed mostly in soccer, suggesting that they don't have the capacity to bring on new sports (I think they do a little rugby etc) and undercutting to get the US teams might work to get a bit of scale, but may be a Pyrrhic victory for them if they had to essentially give the units away to win business.
I think the greater range of sports CAT is in will enable them to keep ahead of STAT more broadly and will erode STAT's lead in soccer over the medium term. The broader range of sports analysed by CAT may enable them to find or better use a metric than STAT, who might not figure it out by only playing in one sport. Essentially CAT is fighting STAT in STAT's home ground, while STAT hasn't started in CAT's.
The stack might sound gimmicky but I think creates a stickier user base and the pairing with video is a definite competitive advantage and I think that is represented in the increase video sales seen this year. XOS sales had been relatively stagnant prior to acquisition.
CAT is cashed up and I feel they are correctly building their user base rather than pushing earlier for profits. Interest rates are moving up and debt is getting more expensive so potentially harder for new competitors in the next few years. I was expecting profits earlier, but the balance sheet is healthy and cashflow has improved greatly which means that $ 30 mil stretches along way now.
Also I think competition is good, it shows that the tracking of athletes for performance/injury management is becoming more accepted and the GPS units are the current way of doing things, I'd be more concerned of STAT if they were gaining market share using a completely different technology, that would suggest CAT had problems. To not have competition isn't really a thing in the real world anyway.
There is a real risk that STAT becomes funded / bought by a big name company, which would change the game, but I think CAT is reasonably healthy and experienced to compete. If that had happened a couple of years ago it would probably be a different story. Also i think that is why CAT made a few acquisitions, so as to protect or make themselves the more attractive proposition if a big name turned up.
I'm not sure on the Playr stuff. Fitbit as far as I'm aware isn't profitable, but is obviously a different product and CAT has the ability to sell data analysis etc to the Playr uses for subscription. I'm sure CAT has a plan for it and will be interesting to see how it develops, but currently I'm only looking at the pro segment, Playr is the icing if it becomes a success.
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