My take is this publication of the final report is very significant in many front. It forms a basis for medical and practicing professionals to rely on. Previously, it is something like “you have xxxx problems, this is something that may help you, not medically proven, but many people claimed that it works for them, no harm trying...”. Something like chicken soup for cold, gingko nuts for tinnitus, turmeric capsules for aches and pain, red wine for...
With this outstanding result, what I would next expect will be:
1. More doctors, child and educational psychologist, austistic centers, psychiatrists, occupational therapist, speech therapist and a whole string of people who are in the supporting industry, ready to accept and endorse Mente Autism (MA) as one of the legitimate tools to help children in the ASD spectrum to manage their daily life. Previously, alternative treatment could be frowned upon or just tolerated, but now MA with appropriate scientific evidence, will have a legitimate place in their practice.
2. Medical insurance companies will have a basis to approval MA as a legitimate tool. Once accepted into the Insurance approved list of home medical devices, you can bet how quickly MA will be flying off the shelves of the distributors.
3. The new improved version of MA will only hit the distributors this month, which means we will only see sales results in the report from 1Q2019. If my memory serves me well, cost of production per unit is about €300, sale price to distributors is about €800. Budget forecast for production for 4Q is about A$600k, mathematically speaking, there should be about 1200 units in the first batch hitting the distributors in Italy, Greece and Germany very soon as we can see the distributors activities has increased recently. If all are recorded as sales, we would see a gross profit of about A$900,000 in the first quarter. If they still need time to train the medical professionals, the revenue and earnings will be delayed by a few weeks.
4. FDA Submission and the process to approval will take time. Not a bad thing as the company will be busy enough to supply Europe, Middle East and hopefully there will be enough for Australia. We still need time to assess the ramp up in production while FDA process drags.
5. Previous publicity for NTI were more in the investment journals. With the publication of the final results, publicity would probably extend to more medical journals, public media, parenting and educational journals etc with proper accreditation and scientific backing. Public awareness of a device to help manage children in the ASD spectrum will increase greatly.
Blue sky concept with profitability long way into the future? Nah....
I am pumped. Looking forward to the next 6 months.
NTI Price at posting:
15.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
