FRX 0.00% 0.7¢ flexiroam limited

Compare FRX with UNL, page-25

  1. 627 Posts.
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    I'm not too concerned about UNL's performance or forecast's (other than how they may relate to FRX), however I'd be careful using any selective bias when analysing your holdings.

    You stated earlier in this thread that Covermore wouldn't be a significant loss:

    "...Gross revenue from Covermore was approximately $50,000 per month but cost reductions relating to this Cavermore contract termination will be $15,000 to $20,000 per month..."

    The annual report you reference shows that UNL's Covermore revenue dropped from $2.7m to ~$900k.

    This puts the future revenue loss at 50% higher than indicated. Closer to $75k p/m not 50k.
    Additionally, total revenue dropped by ~$3.5m, so Covermore revenue drop only represented ~50% of revenue decline. Taking out the R&D ~500k that was received after quarterly end, still leaves a reduction in revenue of over $1m outside of Covermore.

    Your Q3/Q4 comparisons are selective. I don't think comparing Q on Q growth for UNL is appropriate given the high seasonality and once-off nature of the services they supply. Given the recurring nature of FRX's revenue it is more appropriate to use this method, however much safer to use annual figures to establish a trend.

    In any case, it matters less what you or I think, UNL management have indicated that despite slashing costs they anticipate a modest surplus for FY19. Given the seasonality of travel, I'd be expecting a bigger surplus in the next two Q's and a loss in Q's 3 & 4.
 
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