On pure balance sheet as it sits today you are 100% correct. Valuation is probably $1M - $2m
Based on :
- Strategic Investor (Mason) investing $80m to secure Australia’s largest IF producing factory
- Raw material supply secured to service close to infinite supply + or -,
- Strategic Investor ( Mason ) investing several 100’s of million to secure retail chain in China to sell WHA IF
- CFDA approval imminent ( it is a formality).
Then yes $300- $350m is understandable and the market has factored that in accordingly.
Putting aside channel partner arrangements in 8 other countries including Australia.
To build that channel , or partner up to purchase it as they have , it will cost you a minimum $500m. (Acquisition of factury, retail chain alone).
Factor in capacity to sell 20m tins of IF per annum through this channel , (they have the capacity and the agreements locked in ) then yes current valuation is “understandable”.
Execution of sales over the next 3-4 qtrs will see a valuation 10- 20 fold where it is today.
The only question I have is : will they execute on sales ?
Answer : it’s not overly difficult to fill tins with IF powder to supply your secured channel.
I fortunately or unfortunately know management far too well. They deserve the money they are all paid and will execute accordingly.
SP of $30 and valuation of 5-6 Billion is 24 - 48 months away.
Will the SP fluctuate violently between now and then ? Yes.
If you’re in it for the long haul 3-4 years - you will retire on a significant investment made today.
I hold roughly 300,000 shares and won’t be selling any of them within the next 5 years.
Yes traders can trade this stock all day long, there will be the opportunity to do so. WHA will be a top 5 Australian IF supplier to China ( or do you honestly believe Mason have invested $500 million in building and securing the channel for no good reason ?) - local sales are insignificant.
Good luck to all current and future holders
WR
WHA Price at posting:
$2.22 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held