goodaye Sally & Really,AGL would not have had a substantial s/h...

goodaye Sally & Really,
AGL would not have had a substantial s/h in MOS prior to their pre-bid deal with s/h.
Any s/h 5% or above is deemed a "substantial" s/h and must be notified to the coy and ASX.
There is no way AGL would have made a mistake in that regard.

the issue wrt the value of MOS is a seperate one to the level of the SP, and to the level of the AGL offer imho.

we all seem to believe that the AGL offer undervalues MOS.

But the reason that AGL has been able to get away with that stingy offer of just 15c, is because the MARKET did not value the MOS shares at their true worth.

If the MOS SP had been say 12c on 1 July 2010, does anyone suggest that AGL would have offered 15c ?

Of course not. But with an SP of just 7.8c, AGL offer of 15c looked plausible.

SO the real question is why the MOS SP was sitting at just 7.8c.

Because of market perception.
the market believed that MOS had no real growth story, no potential, and was an unattractive acquisition prospect.
The market obviously placed no value on the SUGS.
The MOS Board and mgt conveniently hardly mentioned the SUGS project from their recent presentations, after excitedly talking-up the project at AGMs and presentations earlier.

SO - we now see that AGL and MOS had been, thats HAD ALREADY BEEN, in discussions wrt to an acquisition "earlier in 2010" !!!!

DO YOU THINK THE MOS SP WOULD HAVE BEEN SITTING AT 7.8C ON 1ST JULY IF THE MARKET HAD KNOWN THAT AGL WAS SNIFFING AROUND ?????

(and keep in mind that MOS sp at 7.8c was represented by 4.4c of cash after sale of Kimu - so all the other assets of MOS were only valued at 3.4c by the market).

If any sh of MOS are unhappy with the price of 15c, you need look no further than your Board, and demand to know why we sh were not told of the earlier approaches by AGL.
The Board has an absolute duty of disclosure of any material information.

cheers