There are a lot of competing elements. On the bearish side you have gas refinery outage, the end of summer driving season, maintenance in refineries. On the bullish side you have gulf and Eagle Ford production cuts, relatively low dollar, Libya pipelines down, and the gap between Brent and WTI. The biggest problem is popular sentiment and certainly, media sentiment is bearish. For instance, one report on the LIbya pipeline blockade led with Prices down despite Libya blockade. Instead of just reporting the blockade they undercut it. Now you would think the gas refineries would recover far more quickly than Eagle Ford. You would think those lateral wells could be badly flooded and hard to clear as well as the infrastructure not as sophisticated as the refineries. There is some chance there could be a big spike if the media cannot contain the bullish news. I don't know if anybody reads Oilprice.com but it is hilarious with two of their three main writers being bears and one one being a bull. Contradictory stories everywhere. I am backing refinery infrastructure to come back online fairly quickly so there should be an increase but $5-6 sounds optimistic as we will be constantly reminded of the end of the driving season and refinery maintenance and possibly low demand in China.
STO Price at posting:
$3.76 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)
