COK 0.00% 0.0¢ cockatoo coal limited

Cockatoo coal, page-24

  1. 5,334 Posts.
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    It can't recover to anything like its previous prices of 20-50c pre-consol. That value was permanently destroyed by a series of poor management/board decisions of the "eyes bigger than tummy" variety going back to 2010 when they bought Anglo's coal assets.

    The whole time they were living on borrowed money and the debt was increasing with each passing year, and once the boom ended they had no way to pay it off because they couldn't raise enough equity.

    As crinumstarter pointed out (and with a name like that I suspect there's a lot of coal experience there) the mine itself was loss making during the coal lows but that alone wasn't what sent them to administration. It was the debt load. If they had managed their capital better during the boom years it's highly likely IMO that they would have been able to ride out the bust.

    But what's done is done. The real question is what is the value going forward, ie is it worth a buy on relisting. I haven't made up my mind on that yet. The coal market is favourable but I need to work out exactly how many of the people involved in the last train wreck are still involved. And as has been pointed out, who knows what the long-term future is for PCI. At the very least they should be able to be a significantly cheaper producer from the larger mine, which should nudge them a fair way down the cost curve, but it won't ever be a Tier 1 mine.
 
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