But your hypothesis is at odds with the company's announcements. The first one stated that:
"The lower grade ore is arising from two sources; Medium grade ROM stockpiles (plural, not "one pile") where the grade in the stockpile has been overestimated, and lower than expected grade ore from the Boundary pit."
So it was not "one mistake made in labelling one pile of ore."
In fact, they did not mislabel any piles of ore. The mistake was a manual input error in a forecast rather than anything to do with production.
The company went on to say that recent infill and grade control drilling has highlighted greater grade variability than expected. It IS all to do with the grades.
Two days later they announced a report that has so many contradictions in it that it is surprising that the share didn't tank another 40%!:
"Wonawinta ... is producing silver on a regular basis, in increasing quantities." followed by "We expect to produce 70-75,000oz of Dore in November" which, as we all know, is an increase from October's 120,000oz.
"The Geological Model is still the same ..." OK, I'm not familiar with the model, but I would have thought that if there is a shift in the anticipated location of the ore, the model was wrong. If there is a variance in grade distribution between holes as a consequence of the drilling (I think I know what they mean, although they say that the drilling has changed the grades!), isn't the model wrong?
They keep on saying that there is no need to change the model because it is early days, they "believe that the balance conforms to the reserve estimate" without giving any reasons, despite them giving several reasons to the contrary.
CCU Price at posting:
31.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held