coalition majority known tomorrow, page-5

re: sev to benefit from senate maj'ty http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2004/results/sendQLD.htm

Antony Green's Analysis
This is by far the closest and most complex count. At a key point in the distribution, the National Party needs to stay ahead of Family First, gaining the majority of Family First preferences which then puts the National Party ahead of One Nation at the next count. By Tuesday 26 October, the National Party's lead over Family First had widened from 2,900 votes to 7,900. However, this has resulted in a narrowing of the National Party's lead over One Nation from 3,700 votes to just 1,100 votes. However, this analysis forgets that these counts are only estimates based on assuming all votes are above-the-line ticket votes. The National Party started its count with 0.4624 of a quota, One Nation 0.2087 and Family First 0.2355. Both One Nation and Family First rely heavily on receiving ticket votes to even get close to the National Party, which means in reality, with around 117,000 ballot papers cast as below the line votes, the National Party is actually further ahead. This especially the case with around 26,000 below the line votes for Pauline Hanson. If any of these votes fail to flow to One Nation, then the National Party's Barnaby Joyce will win with relative ease, delivering the 39th seat to the Coalition and control of the Senate. If the below the line votes do wipe out the National Party's lead, the final seat will most likely be won by the Greens. The result sees One Nation's Len Harris and the Australian Democrat's John Cherry defeated.