coal on the move.....riv to pop, page-6

Hi everyone. Did anyone get a chance to look at the link above? I'm quite new to coal valuation, but gave this some thought anyway. A question on this - why are we saying that the coke produced will be of high quality? Looking at the third last page on the investor presentations, it looks like the coal will have ash content of 41.1% (is this right? - it says ash % at 1% adm, and then 41.1). All the producers in Skip's link above have ash content of 1.2% to 28%, so this seems quite high (i.e. low quality?)

Another measure would be the CSR. In the annual report, it states that the coke has a CSR of 67. Not quite sure what a "good" CSR is - anyone here know?

A rough back of the envelope valuation -
The Astaire report used a value of 0.20c/tonne to value the Churchill reserves. Assuming this coal is of lower quality, and being a bit more conservative, lets say the value here is 0.15c/tonne. So for 4b tonnes, that's a project value of US$800m. RIV's proportion is 65%, so in AU$, that's about $560m.

Again, if we go with free cash flows...the report reckons a conservative profit per tonne is US$20. Again, applying conservatism for lower quality coal, if we go with $15 per tonne, that's project cash flows of US$400m when fully ramped up (65% i.e. US$260m per annum). This will take up to 4 years to eventuate though. Not too bad for a company with market cap $1bn. although i haven't allowed for development costs there.

So it does sound like this is a pretty long term investment, with t/o potential as a short term catalyst.