That's a lot of assumptions in order to arrive at your valuation of $500m including one which has not even been proven to work yet on a large scale(EORGAS). Niobrara has also been shown to be very unpredictable. Definitely not just a case of "patience and time" as you like to put it if you're going to include the above assumptions in your calculations IMO.
Nevertheless, hope you're right for everyone's sake but I personally prefer to err on the side of caution especially based on the company's track record to date. 95cents will be good enough for me.
Welcome back CT and all the best.
ELK Price at posting:
20.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held