Once finance is approved and the mine is fully funded the share price should follow IMO as the building of the mine realises the value. Without the mine the value is intangible and subject to manipulation and speculation. Financing and the building of the mine crystallises the real value, it then just becomes a question of how good the feasibilty is and exectution. With mine construction approval I think you will start seeing values and hence share prices moving towards post tax NPV which is $166 million (currently 22cents/share). If financing also includes an equity component the trick IMO on how to play this is to buy more shares in proportion to any dilution you might suffer through any raising, as long as the EV of the company remains below the after tax NPV or any ungraded NPV value that might be produced. RRL showing their hand at this point puts a $85 million price tag on the project. I think we can look forward to more than double this once Tramore is factored in.
Want I find a bit strange is that the board is behind the RRL proposal even before it has been made formal and put into the market place. I would think on this basis if Hawkes Point aren’t in agreement with the proposal then the board might find itself under a bit of pressure from the major shareholder and rightfully so. With Tramore still to be built into the resource and mine plan and funding and contractors still to be sourced there still is a fair bit of work the board needs to do. Maybe we could be looking at a board spill if the deal falls over, I’d certainly be behind Hawkes Point if this were to be the outcome. No point having a board in place that agrees to a half baked failed deal before finishing their work. Esh
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