OGI 0.00% 0.5¢ ogi group ltd

Closing price today, page-36

  1. 1,562 Posts.
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    Snowy, good post as was Trevor's imo. I would add that not all posters are rampers or brokers and each post is a reflection on the poster individually therefore we can all choose whether posts are objective or non emotional.

    In regard to OGI fundamentally as I see it they have currently producing oil wells of approximately 29 boed. At $90k per barrel gives an EV of about $2.6m and generates net of around $170k per quarter. In June there was $1.4m cash which from the qtly projections would give Sept cash of about $700k. The leases also have a reserve value but that is harder to value so I will ignore. In all that gives $3.4m divide by no shares (400.5m) gives 0.008 per share. The SP on Monday was 0.004 therefore at that price represented value before the announcement. This number is my opinion and does not include the recent Graphite or Diamond acquisition which I think will take some time to fully understand.

    The last conversion reduced debt by $400k. The conversion rate was around 0.0055948 not 0.003 which appears to be the rate used in the schedule in the Acquisition announced. Because of the recent conversion the table should change and therefore any further conversion will also effect the post consolidation number of shares. If it doesn't then imo the 67:1 ration could change and this point was noted by nihilism yesterday.

    In my opinion by using the table and using the conversion notes as a guide we can calculate an implied value of the Diamond and Graphite interests and form our own opinion on the value of the company post consolidation. That does not mean the SP will reflect that value but gives a guide as to market cap.

    IMO the consolidation will not change the market cap. It changes the number of shares and the value of the shares. As this company and others have done consolidations in the past, holders are well equipped to understand possible outcomes and risks if the market cap pre consolidation is above fundamental value or if news and a clear plan is not presented to the market.

    We can also not quantify sentiment. Clearly the company and mgt have a challenge ahead to overcome past issues. There are many companies today in similar situations and the best we can do as try to understand the plan and act accordingly. All opinions are valid and should be considered.

    Personally, I have read most posts over the past 3 years and have my own opinion. I held shares in 2012 but sold shortly after when considering the quarterly cash flow statements and a personal risk assessment. I hold GGE shares and as OGI has a shared interest in one of our prospects I have an interest in understanding what happens here. Some of our HC posters also hold this stock which is why I have posted my opinion which I hope gives a perspective. Also our Managing Director is a Non Executive Director here and I believe he is competent and will add value to the future direction. I do not know these people or have any ties but share a common interest in a share we hold and also an interest in understanding how the markets work.

    These stocks all have risk, and imo the market today has not been kind to any small cap company. That is likely to continue and we should all be very careful to fully understand these risks and also be objective in also considering the opportunities. The proposed Mozambique licence acquisition was unexpected by me and has merit in considering with a cautious and open mind if that way inclined.

    Best wishes to all holders past and present. This is just an opinion and like all opinions is biased by my own experience and knowledge which may be incorrect and if you disagree that is fine.
    Cheers
 
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