the $70 number is the key here. with a 97% success rate based on a UK university study - the MC doesnt even come close to a realistic figure.
say of the 750,000 annual tests undertaken in the UK - we get only 100,000. Thats $7million in revenue from the UK alone.. with a PE of even 7, MC = 49 Mill!!
now, the CEO is confident we will be the top choice and now lets say we get 50% of the market... well thats closer to $250 Mill (rough calcs)
the PE may be much higher due to growth potential and we are in for a serious re-rating.
mind you, these figures are just for UK... add the rest of the markets and ofcourse our win in asia - well, it is no exaggeration that this could be a billion dollar company. we have other aussie biotechs that are billion dollar cos with just one main product... please feel free to correct me if my calcs seem improbable - i do not want to ramp unnecessarily - i really think it will get there based on the $70 figure provided. coz if we even got 1 million of the tests, thats 70 mill and with a PE of 10 - 700 mill ... and being the best product should give us much greater than the 1 million customer base???
ofcourse, these diagnostic tests may not be taken up much in many asian countries... but countries with medicare like systems (and its good that HTX is targeting Europe - coz that fits the bill!!!) and with good health insurance practices (the US) have tremendous potential.
HTX Price at posting:
17.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
