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21/03/19
09:37
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Originally posted by AlexanderJ:
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It's always good to hear scientists tell the truth and highlight where their computer models have got it wrong and where they could be wrong in their predictions in the future. Let me add... Scientific predictions come from computer models that are set up by the scientists. The basis for those models are mainly assumptions, they have to be. These models then get adjusted to account for predictions where the model was incorrect. Bearing this in mind, I don't see how the models can "guarantee" to be correct in the future. They are always backward looking but don't look backward far enough to account for longer cycles partly because the data doesn't exist, partly because they are not "smart" enough to account for all the complexities that determine our "climates" .... yes climates, there are more than one and they affect each other in many different ways. Scientists have made errors and bad decisions before. For a start, they introduced the cane toad to Australia. The cane toad was completely ineffective against the cane beetle which was the primary reason for its introduction - they made incorrect assumptions. The cane toad is now spreading across Australia at an alarming rate and its poison is decimating native fauna. They didn't account for consequences. There are many other examples where scientists got it wrong ... so please, think carefully before you accept "scientific" predictions in blind faith because they are touted as being based on "scientific" evidence. They may be found to be correct or unfortunately they may not be correct. Just my opinion of course ... can be backed up in many ways, try Google. LoL....
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Science evolves over time and corrects physical or abstract models. That is how the T model Ford became to Ferrari. Climate models have also become refined with greater accuracy over time. Deniers were saying it was a joke that 97% of climate scientists agreed climate change was being super-charged due to increases in CO2 levels due to human activity. That level has grown to almost 98% and before long it will hit 100%.