re: clarkkent alpha
Alpha as always a pleasure. Have actually spent quite a bit of time in the Murray catchment and that is why I am worried for its future. Reality remains that water security is THE issue and you need to pay for water both in terms of the physical commodity and the inflated value of desert soil presumably becoming irrigatable infinity squared. Obviously not the case given how this year and many before it have unfolded.
Wheatbelt land (dryland) is cheap and generally reflective of historic rainfall amounts. All that has been changing to date in my part of the world has been the pattern of rainfall throughout the year as opposed to the amount (ie getting more summer rain and less winter rainfall). Hence the reflected winter crop yields across the wheatbelt for 06-07. But that's cool I have a perennial crop to swicth across to to manage that risk. What are you going to do on that expensive Murray fringe area without water allocation. You couldn't even grow broadacre crops? Back to rangeland grazing? Who knows?
Salinity is not really a problem in the Wheatbelt when you switch to perennial crops. We have had success in reclaiming previously unarable land. As I get more sandalwood in I expect this to increasingly become the case. Gross margins for sandalwood nuts actually increase the earning capacity of wheatbelt soil and hence have the ability to inflate land values to reflect this.
Whilst I know you love slipping the boot into my ideology when it challenges your own, rest assured a great deal of thought goes into it. Agriculture is my world.
TIM Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
