CIA vs FMG - EBITDA comparison, page-7

Aqua,

Refer to page 18 of the FS as below:

http://www.championiron.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/2018_06-QIO-Corporate-Presentation.pdf

It's based on a Bloom Lake realised price of US$76/t CFR China with shipping to China at US$19/t

Now we are mid-2018 & what's changed?

Bloom Lake realised price is US$97/t CFR China with shipping to China up to US$28/t

That's US$21/t more for our product vs an extra US$9/t in costs

High bulk shipping costs means high demand for bulk commodities which means high prices.

CIA's profit margin is cushioned in two ways against a dramatic fall in iron ore price from here.

1. If Bloom Lake's realised price dropped by US$20/t due to a large drop in iron ore demand from China & therefore less steel production, then the steel-making coking coal price will also fall & I guarantee you that capsize bulk shipping rates will also fall sharply.

2. In the scenario above, Australia's two largest commodity exports will be hit & take the Aussie dollar down with them. Iron ore is priced in US$ therefore more AUD$ profit.

CIA is no Atlas (AGO) - it's the polar opposite.

Under the above scenario CIA is just back to the long-term FS scenario.

It's the low-grade Aussie producers that have to worry - Atlas is dead, Cliffs just walked from Western Australia & super low-cost FMG's share price is heading down to $4.

CIA's share price is heading in the other direction!

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