I am afraid I completely disagree about your coal assessment.. although I don't know the MC of the other Botswana coalers so you could be right on the comparison to peers part...
This coal is rubbish.. see below:
-High strip ratios (according to todays ann, 10-1 to 60-1 SR) -below average calorific values compared to worldwide peers (mongolia, SA, Canada, US, Australia) -Low yielding, it has lower yield barriers often in 20-30% range and uppers rarely above 80%. Knowing the technical mining capabilities of botswana they would likely see an average yield of below 50 due to dilution -Total sulphur is on the upper border of export spec, even at the best of times, with lower seams often above. And thats post-wash. -It has fairly high (but not hugely high) inherent moisture at 9%
Ontop of all that, it has to look at 'innovative transport options' because obviously the infrastructure isn't there to support it.
the coal could only be sold at a sub-thermal export price (currently sitting at $85/tonne AUD) which I don't think they could mine and wash for that price, let alone make back any capital investment.
Coal price needs to be a fair bit higher, and infrastructure more advanced for this coal to become economically viable.
They should concentrate on Specimens reef, thats where this speccies real value lies IMO.
NMR Price at posting:
2.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held