Coolhalk it has been a frustrating time recently and no clarification regarding the Vinsom deal adds suspicion to its purpose and dear i say it managment. There is also history in peoples minds.
Nevertheless three or four of the recent announcements in combinationin my view confirm that there has been significant and very detailed progress on the road to production. These announcements include the Ti-Cons turnkey titanium pigment plant tender, the DKSH titanium off take announcement albeit only at term sheet stage, the SMS EPC/FEED announcement importantly including the extensive set of guarantees and of course the recent the KfW mandate to raise the required financial package.
TThere can be no doubt that this combo of anouncements with entities involved is significant and arguably deserving of greater market acknowledgement. This is especially so when you consider market reports , NPV estimates and commodity supply/demand preasures.
Against that positive there is still plenty to do before finance/construction of either or both mine and refinery are completely de risked. These obviously include firming up the Titanium off take , submitting the MMP, filing the refinery draft EIS draft and all the EPC related work to name a few key areas.
So i guess standing back i guess the market says its got the comfort of time to watch and see whether the Mt Peake project is truely destined to a final run up to construction and production. In addition there is the sentiment that TNG is still in its orphan stage so no hurry to take a placement.
In my view and accepting for the minute the current time line estimates which by inlarge look iminantly doable there should be a solid pipeline of significant announcements to keep TNG in the markets eye.
Given a good run, no major hick ups and a focused marketing programme by management TNG could see a parrallel run up like we experienced in 2014, 3.5 cents up to 30 cents at peak in six months.
Now im not pumping the SP or stock, im just observing that TNG is sitting well for a solid run if the market assesses finance as a given.
There are limiters like debt/equity ratios that would keep any run proportioned. Also and related if there is an equity partner in the wings they will not want to see a solid rerate and could take tactical steps to keep a hand break on the SP.
On the other hand there some potential wild cards like a binding aggreement with BBI or any other project regarding TIVAN. There is also the 40% vanadium production not yet subject to off take . Who knows what left field announcement could be out there.
II am starting to become quietly confident that 2019 will be a good year. I will not be as bold as i have been in the past to make predictions as that has proven to be disastrous and embarrassing. Lets see how things role Q1 2019. The eyes are on the management team who know what is expected of them.
Just my thoughts.
