You need to apply a discount to nta approach. I apply 20%...

You need to apply a discount to nta approach.

I apply 20% discount so assuming nta of around $1.72 given EYCI you get around 1.38.

Note: the company has this year to prove the strategy is working or its game over debt holders will effectively take over. If the strategy unravels you’ll see the share price under $1 with a market cap of circa $500m and debt being drawn closer and closer to the new cap of $500m - negative free cash flow can only go on for so long. You can believe in the thematic only for so long before you need to look at fundamentals.

Personally I’m hoping the new strategy is working. Unfortunately management aren’t keen on any advisor roadshows and any engagement until full year report in May. They need a sharp turnaround and to announce a strategic partnership with a company on the ground in China. From recent announcements this is part of the plan but focus seems to be bottom up fixing the companies issues and driving cost savings.

The high amount of shorts is actually helped by the companies refusal to engage with the broader market and sell the thematic and turnaround story. If they struggle to turn the business around they really should look to sell off the business. At this share price it’s still grossly undervalued.