MNF 1.21% $5.73 mnf group limited

check out mnf financials i just did, page-35

  1. 983 Posts.
    Based on my research, the model for MNF is that they are essentially a retailer of VOIP services and that Symbio is simply (probably too simple a word) the backend provider.

    Frankly, Symbio could be replaced with a different backend supplier or MNF could build a replacement in house. Ok, Symbio have written some nice code in things like the user GUI & Virtual PABX, etc. But, they can be replaced.

    He who holds the gold makes the rules, Follow The Money, etc, all these sayings are relevant here. MNF owns the client base and Revenue. Symbio is a wholesale supplier to MNF.

    Of course the 2 largest shareholders in MNF are also presumed to be the 100% owners of Symbio and you would assume that they would like to keep Symbio as the MNF supplier.

    Keep in mind that there are 4 directors in MNF, 2 of which are not invested in Symbio. Part of their job is to look out for MNF shareholder interests and I would presume that this would and should involve monitoring the relationship between the 2 entities and ensuring that that Symbio are dealing with MNF on fair market competitive commercial terms. All directors of MNF are substantial shareholders so it follows that the 2 directors who own no part of Symbio are not about to do a sweetheart deal to benefit Symbio now are they?

    Considering all of this, I believe that Symbio would not want to be the DSL supplier as it would involve Symbio investing in infrastructure to provide this service, this in turn would require Symbio to seek long term guarantees & contracts tying MNF to Symbio. This seems like a reasonable situation unless MNF was to be sold, then the game changes. Either the owners of Symbio or the buyers of MNF may not want Symbio in the sale, for whatever reasons. Symbio could of course make the DSL investment and make an agreement that if MNF is sold that the buyer takes out that portion of the Symbio business thta made the DSL investment, again this may not work as the buyer may be a DSL company.

    In the event that Symbio directors want to sell off MNF it would be a great risk to them if MNF were to be sold off on the condition that it breaks these agreements with Symbio thus leaving Symbio invested in DSL infrastructure and with no other clients buying from Symbio?

    Personally, my take on this would be that MNF buys it's DSL from a full services DSL wholesaler and that MNF or Symbio invests the minumum amount of money (my research indicates that around $400K would cover this) in IP POP Switching to provide an MNF POP. This way if MNF is sold to a DSL company then the DSL company would only have to pay an additional $400K to Symbio if Symbio were the DSL provider to MNF.

    There is also a presumption that Symbio or MNF would likely have to sign a contract agreement with a DSL wholesaler for a fixed term in order to purchase at the lowest rate. This term may have to be negotiated in minimum blocks in order to decouple from the service asap in the event that the MNF buyer does not want the DSL contract obligation. Shorter terms will mean an increased cost to Symbio or MNF one would presume.

    I understand that Symbio does quite alright for itself with it's other wholesale clients in the VOIP space. I have heard tell of who some of their clients are and who they are would impress anyone. I have not seen firm proof of this so will not divulge this heresay information here.

    I think that we are all getting into areas here that none of us can predict the outcome and any discussion regarding how Symbio fits in to any future sale of MNF is most likely futile. But, put yourself in their shoes, how would you you structure it given that you have shown your hand as willing to sell MNF? Answer that and you probably have a reasonable idea of how it will pan out.

    MNF have proven in the past that they are willing sellers if the right offer comes their way, this is good for MNF shareholders and provided that their perfromance continues at it's last years rates then it is surely a given that a takeover of MNF is assured and that MNF SP will increase accordingly.

    We are in the takeover zone right now, make no mistake, anytime from now onwards, be ready. What price I hear you ask? Well, most MNF shareholders who purchased stock paid between 15-20c and they have not sold any from what I can see. So expect a sale price of 25-30c in the short term and higher as time goes on.

    Please note : my knowledge in how to setup and run a DSL network is limited and I accept I could be wrong in some of my estimates.
 
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