Did I say that polysilicon prices were high? Near the $300/kg spot market of 2008? No. As you say current silicon oversupply has driven silicon cost to around $50/kg, below or close to that of building new facilities so limited new facilities to be built beyond those already announced.
current likely silicon production will be about 150,000 tonnes in the next three years. Equivalent at current cell utilisation rates for about 30GW of cells, which is very close to GTM's estimate of the size of the PV market then (remember to balance silicon demand down by the 25% of that 30GW that will be thin film by then).
Prices rise when demand exceeds supply, if at current prices 80c worth of silicon produces a watt of power in $1.19 worth of panel http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2010/06/coming-into-focus-concentrating-pv-players-finally-get-respect
When silicon demand approaches supply, silicon cost will rise and a company using 20c silicon/watt (Sliver cells) potentially has an advantage over one using 80c. silicon/watt.
As Solarfeen points out, the benefits of slicing the silicon salami depends on the costs of converting silicon into cells in modules.
Cells built traditionally on single wafers might suit manual assembly in low wage countries but as robotized assembly comes along this advantage diminishes. Sliver cells will be robotically assembled by machines similar to those that pump out transistors or simple silicon chips by the billion.
CBD Price at posting:
12.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
