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clock Created with Sketch. 25/05/18
08:30
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Originally posted by BobF
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I give a lot of credence to charting - when the trades are actually representative of an "open" market, where there is a fair chance that everybody who is holding is equally likely to trade based on the signals that charting signifies. In AP's case this is clearly not so. The major holders are not willing, and not able, to trade freely. Charting still works after a fashion, but only because the remaining market is trading more freely and responsively. But it is still sentiment based trading of a small pool of shares that is not going to affect the underlying value of the stock. We are just fleas on the elephant. Anything we do only affects a very small fraction of the stock. Yes it may seem very volatile at times (and thus subject to the statistical analysis that is the basis of charting) but it is like a game of poker being played by the fleas. As soon as the elephant decides to make any move all bets are off. The coming announcement is likely to simply kick the table over I think. And any charting made without reference to that seismic shift will be made completely irrelevant.
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Jeez BobF - I am so envious of the way you structured your response. Wish I'd written it, but after a long lunch and a couple of bottles of red...well, you get my drift. Can't argue with anything you said, it's what I've thought for years. Am looking forward to meeting you and also drinking lotsa Vlad's beers, wines etc.....he's come in late, hasn't suffered as much as us long term holders, so we deserve it.
(20min delay)
