I give a lot of credence to charting - when the trades are...

I give a lot of credence to charting - when the trades are actually representative of an "open" market, where there is a fair chance that everybody who is holding is equally likely to trade based on the signals that charting signifies.  In AP's case this is clearly not so. The major holders are not willing, and not able, to trade freely.  Charting still works after a fashion, but only because the remaining market is trading more freely and responsively. But it is still sentiment based trading of a small pool of shares that is not going to affect the underlying value of the stock.  We are just fleas on the elephant.  Anything we do only affects a very small fraction of the stock.  Yes it may seem very volatile at times (and thus subject to the statistical analysis that is the basis of charting) but it is like a game of poker being played by the fleas.  As soon as the elephant decides to make any move all bets are off.  The coming announcement is likely to simply kick the table over I think.  And any charting made without reference to that seismic shift will be made completely irrelevant.   

The most we can say is that when AP announces that it has a fully functioning, validated, and finished chip capable of being demonstrated and ordered by the consumer electronics industry there will be a huge amount of interest in the stock, generated by industry and market interest in the media's coverage of the possibilities it ushers in.  The problem then will be that there will be very limited supply of shares for sale, and these will undoubtedly soar as holders take profit.  But most in the know - i.e. the major holders - will not be induced to sell because the major money is still a year or so off when revenues start to be generated.  

But it will be a fun ride on the way there I think!  And my pick is that that time is getting closer and closer by the day.

PS: I notice that vlad is still holding despite his continually negative comments.  Should one presume he is scooping up whatever he manages to shake loose?