As Ben Graham said in his book two things drive markets over...

As Ben Graham said in his book two things drive markets over time :

1. Earnings, including dividends
2. Changes in how much investors are willing to pay for those earnings.

Earnings accrue and compound while valuations are more unpredictable.

In A2's case I see earnings going up and as the business diversified into new products and regions the multiple the market will be willing to pay goes up. A2 has one of the highest growth rates on the ASX plus the highest ROIC to the point that it is not really even worth calculating.

Sequoia hit the nail on the head in their newsletter. Multiple paid was probably higher than they normally like to pay but A2 seems to have a product that the market wants so the valuation for the business is likely to be much higher than here.

Even at a worst case scenario A2 holds multiple and doubles earnings we still get $26 next 18 months. But this is my worst case scenario. and it ain't get much better than that.

Do like you said. It is never as good as you think it will be, and never as bad as it seems.