Hello Josh and Parma
...to develop the ‘step change’ thinking a bit further I think it is more logical than magical!
Visually : (keeping to the only possible theme ):
View attachment 1458083
Ramping?
No
( I am pretty sure it would only be that if I tried to see early formation of a cup and handle in my addendum to the chart )
Josh in relation to this idea, I was wondering how many spare $10 millions we will have by EOFY given the $10 million for RCR MT, the $12 million loan to Gascoyne, another
$7.2 million to us in dividends (thank you AW)..... and the fact that capex is beginning to already go up .....( we will surely need more equipment to work further contracts ?)
..And if BGC engineering is any good, will it end up going to the rumoured one who may have bid against us at RCR?
There has been a LOT of time for everyone to run their rulers over that company so it will be interesting to see who buys it and for how much.
I was thinking the step change might come out of :
1) two or three big contracts being announced.
-I know I have a propensity for wild theories but I am fieldcraft sure there’s more from a major ... (though as said I don’t know how big or when)
-And Jules talked about “18 month contracts” in his AFR interview on the Pilbara..as per previous comment here if this was not an accidental generalisation it is an intimation as we don’t yet have any.
-And in the Interim Report I think there’s a hint of more coming when he says “progress to date has been extremely positive ..” especially when you consider that in respect of RIO there has been the ECI since May 2018.
-Plus a new executive general manager hired for the NRW Mining Division; Ric Buratto, in late 2017.
Surely this is not all for a few “grunt” bulk earthworks contracts?
-As Pioupiou has reminded a couple of times we have good JV’s with indigenous groups ..... a huge asset!
Then there’s also the ECI with Fitzroy Australia ....
- potential government work for Metrolink or in Queensland where Golding, by virtue of it’s reputation, is a real favourite.
PLUS
As Parma said, the integration of new comfort around the economic moat in regards FAL - a project that has had obvious impact on the price last year and a re-rating, along with our excellent results, that may not yet have been fiully integrated by the market
PLUS
The potential of this company to pull rabbits out of a hat whether in regards BGC or something else.
PLUS
The chart says ...or will say so .
PLUS
...I can’t think of any more right now
(Others thoughts are welcome.)
Closer to home, and today we saw an excellent close OVER the $2.32 level and by my reckoning buyers were not messing about .
VWAP 230.899, volume 2.283 million shares and around a quarter of a million of those went through in the closing auction attended by 54 trades.
(The weight looks like sellers according to Stockness Monster ?)
View attachment 1458141
Shorts yesterday : 167,610 (
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=Nwh ) and by my estimation that leaves around 2.6million open.
(There seems to be an excessive amount of them if I am right ..Maybe they were expecting to play greater havoc with the price back in December than they managed to ? ....I would love someone to clarify what is going on with them and likely to happen)
Cheers
(20min delay)
