Chart Update, page-823

Where will the SP go in coming months? Logically, from the way I look at NWH, the SP is about right at $2.30 based on an EPS estimate of just above 16c and a PER of just above14. If you lift the rounded 16 and 14 by 1.5%, you will get $2.30. A few Announcements will excite the herd, so they may lift the PER to 15, and that gives 16c x 15 = $2.40 by 30 June 2019. When the F19 results are known, people will start looking at FY20's EPS estimates, which for the want of a number may be 17.3c, and if the PER of 15 holds sway, the SP will go to $.173 x 15 = $2.60 by the end of calendar year 2019. A year later it should be $3.00, I think. This is just a feel of where Mr Market is going to take the SP this and next calendar year. While the tax-loss credits are there, and hence help cash flow, NWH can grow quicker than what its normalised growth should be.

The above is pure gut-feel, not a valuation analysis. The conclusion is not very different from what Saragians charts suggest (post 37530629), other than that I have dragged the timing out further for no reason other than caution. A spate of good news, which I am sure will occur no later than July, may well excite the herd to use a PER greater than the 15, which I used in the foregoing calculations.

Let us see what transpires.