Hello Parma ..thank you :) I am feeling quite nervous we...

Hello Parma ..thank you

I am feeling quite nervous we pointedly broke that linear regression line on the chart ...and the 300,000 traded in the S3xT reads to me almost as a formal statement of intent to war . ( or maybe a formal notice of intent someone wants in at that price?? Or both )

Anyway I am glad I tried to record all those S3XTs when Paradice started buying big chunks from August 9.
If there is going to be a war I want to be mentally prepared for it .

( I have immediately developed a useful working theory Paradice is the seller with the overall goal to increase its holding and reduce its average price ( why would it go anywhere else )
They have a millions of shares they can still sell at profit just on their S3XT trades starting with
1,000,000 at $1 70 - August 9
1,000,000 at $1.72 -August 9.
1,000,000 at $1.71 - August 13
Etc etc etc
I estimate more than 8 million shares between $1.69 and $1.73 until August 21 when the price went up.
If I was them I would be trying to trigger stop losses in other funds so I could buy heavily under $1.60 . (What a score that would be ..)
..Suddenly sacrificing high volume shares - mostly at profit on a really, really ugly market day would do it?
Trigger a rort and then shorters go to work and days go past and the whole thing gets grimmer and grimmer .
We have been there before .

Except other funds are in at much lower average prices and EVERYONE knows the solid worth of NRW...so why would they sell .. Only if they were going to advantage too....which means if they read Paradice’s game ( poor Paradice - you may not be my ‘culprit’ at all )..they would also try to exit hard and fast at highest prices.

But there may not be any buyers at the highest end of the ‘let’s collapse market cap’ scale because everyone’s waiting down at the lower linear line ...
Then ..funds aside ...what if one of the bigger civil companies decides to exploit the situation and start buying shares with a view to a takeover.

It’s kind of intriguing ...

One of the things @kindred_spirit said when they sold was the shares were fed in tranches eagerly gobbled by a hungry ‘mouth in one day .
The etiquette of reducing a large position is something the large entities who have supported NRW will also consider if they care about company health.......and about being inside NarW rather than out of it when expected good announcements start to come in .....

Whatever it was that made Paradice decide to come in so hard, strong and fast is still out there in the wings.... they kept buying hard after price went up as well as before.
It’s an interesting time .

Even if my theoretical evil plot is foiled and next week is great ‘the plot ‘ can just get put on hold.

Meanwhile company value is very strong at these prices. Dividend has gone up to 2%...

And it’s nice to ‘see’ you again Parma
Cheers