Chart Update, page-335

Thanks for that link. I am in broad agreement with the brokers' opinions, although I do not follow their opinions as a rule. On a target SP, I concur with the range of prices suggested. It's odd that when I read something with which I agree, I automatically think the original authors are smart!

On the comment, “UBS has set margin expectations for the civil division below industry targets, i.e. 4.2% versus 5%”, NWH's overall (not just civil division) historical margins vary greatly, so for the want of an NPAT margin, I sucked between 5% and 4% out of my thumb, and took the mid point. Consequently, in my post of 10/07/2018 I wrote, “I decided to simply use Management's revenue estimate for F19, and assume a NPAT margin of 4.5% of revenue, and then assume a PER of 12. That gives me a valuation of (1100*0.045/321.8)*12 =$1.85.”

The brokers' valuations and mine relate to NWH as we now know it. I suspect NWH will morph into a higher life form within a few years, and its metrics will improve, which boils down to more revenue per share, more EPS and a higher PER. If one alters my simplistic calculation to 2000*0.046/321.8*14 =$4, you will get an idea of what I hope will happen a few years hence, if the shares issued remain at circa 321.8 million, revenue gets to $2 billion, NPAT margin moves to 4.6%, and the PER moves to 14. Of course, things will transpire to be different, including NWH doing something crassly stupid (like cutting a mega deal with Adani) that trashes the company. Politicians can stuff up an industry with consummate ease.