Chart has short term potential, page-469

WC

I strongly disagree with you .......

the following is a great site on actual prod no's ......

http://peakoilbarrel.com/

you may draw your own conclusions abt the "shale / tight" oil miracle ........

the next link is rtruely remarkable - enno peters is the chaps name:

https://shaleprofile.com/

have a look at "typical EFS / Bakk / Perm well profile" ........

so - the "few billion" that the USA shale players spent driving usa prod from 5mm bbl/day - to circa 9.5mm bbl/day .....will end up being around 5.5 - 6.0 mm bbl/day even if oil prices rally back to 60 ............simply b/c the banks will NOT lend to companies that have very high decline rates (ie banks will not accept tail risk).....we are seeing this in cap raising for Oz listed us shale plays ......we are also seeing the banks "reduce" the price deck used for calcs in PV10 of PDP assets........

finally - you may wish to review some of the public data that S.A. has put out re "spare capacity" and also future capex requirements to maintain capacity.......

ditto Iran....ditto Iraq

viz:
http://theiranproject.com/
just use the search tab re "oil" ......

entertainily - iran output fell for the first 2 weeks of June .......by 20% ....................maybe ....the 20+ mm /bbl that was "in onshore storage" produced the "production spike" ........lol !

there is some very good techo papers on the $$$$ spent in Iraq post the wars ......and the timeline till their prod rate increased ........

the easy stuff has been found and produced ........already ......

peak oil is very very very real (imho) ........
rgds
V_H