Good Morning A.H. , I take your point about the lag in activity...

Good Morning A.H. , I take your point about the lag in activity , but here is my dilemma . I think Goldman Sachs nailed it months ago when they predicted much more oil would vanish from production than others were predicting . No doubt the big rout has decimated oil producers all over the world and as much as five million bpd may have disappeared . And you are right higher prices will have to return to fund repairs and maintenance alone let alone discovery and development , but now comes the dilemma , without massive repair and maintenance programmes , even more oil will come off as nothing has been done for two years , as programmes have been shut down to save money . So maybe there wont be such a lag as big oil cranks up its maintenance programmes as this work is essential and cannot really be delayed any further . Just look at Venezuela , they defaulted on their debts with Halliburton and Schlomberger and once their services were withdrawn ..... no more oil . The oil production industry was worth 3.8 trillion US before the big rout and is now only worth 1.5 trillion , massive losses all over the Globe and to keep the oil and gas flowing so as to rebalance the oil market they need the oil services . And I believe this is why the Arabs are still paying top rates , because if they were to loose the oil services , their production falls , and that is the end of their folly. Just on another note , over half of the worlds debt was issued to the AOPEC countries last year , without the bond and debt markets the Saudi's $ 750 bl in reserves would have already vanished . A huge change is coming , and coming fast .....Have a good day A.H