Sorry not to respond earlier...have had a busy day away from the computer screen...I whacked a few orders in early in the day, then had to attend to other things, so missed most of the action.
I did sell a few today however, based on the obvious lacklustre response from the marketand also to build my cash ratios as we approach the back end of the January effect.
To be honest though, I am surprised at the extent of the fall...and would have suggested the 40-42c line as support. I see some fairly large orders were sold consistently throughout the day though...and what appears like a large net-seller feeding stock in lots of 50's and 25s...so maybe director options related in one way or another?
In any event, I suspect the Company will not want to see this fall below 30c, in which case if there is net-selling related to options conversion, they will not likely sell below 35c...of course, this does not stop others from selling below here, which is why they will need to manage the stock from here on.
I suspect they may well be converting into the market, in which case the market is doing the Company a favour by keeping the price nicely above 30cevery options that gets converted, puts money in the coffers.
I also wonder if supporters might not be aiding in this processrestraining from sellingeven buying in support? If the end result is a higher share priceAND the directors get to sell some stock into the market to pay for the options exercise, then everyone is a winner.
Looking at the trading here todayperhaps of concern to the market is the fact the lower half of the hole was not higher grade then the upper half...which is not such a bad thing when you look at the Azimuth of the drill.
09WW094D is drilling at Azimuth 82 degrees (dip -60)...effectively left to right if north is up the page...the main target zone as I interpret things, is to the west (ie, to the left). In essence, this hole drilled further and further away from the higher grade porphyry centre (breccia pipe"), as it went deeper, the further away the lower the expected grades.
If anything, the results of this hole further support the view of a higher grade zone as we move west.
Porphyrys typically have concentric grade distribution, with higher grades towards the centre and a fairly consistent and predictable drop-off as we move further out. Wall Rock Porphyrys can vary this model, depending on the lithology and structural influence, but generally speaking, we expect lower and lower grades as we head further and further away from the centre.
In this case, it is looking like they may have found a breccia pipe, which may or may not correspond with the centre of the porphyryneed to drill this at depth, as there is transportable cover concealing outcrop and potential mineralisation at surface.
Anyway, using the argument of a typical concentric grade distribution, we need to monitor the results of hole 09WW096D, which is drilled 150m to the east of 94D with an Azimuth of 263 degrees (dip -62)...ie, it was drilled right to left.
I would expect the overall grades for this hole to be lower than the 94D hole, but to increase at depth as the drill moves from the distant radial lower grade wall-rock, towards the higher grade mineralising source breccia...this would effectively give us the opposite of the results from 94D and in the process, confirm the model for a higher grade sweet spot further west.
I will do some more in-depth research on this when I find a minutenot many minutes about at the moment unfortunately.
Overall, I think the results were very good...in the big picture...as they go some way to confirm a potential 4km strike for the greater resource footprint (Gordons/Whitewash resource at 71mt is based on 1.3km of strike?)so a straight extrapolation increases this to a potential 220mt based on the shallower resource model used for the current resource. Recent drilling appears to be hitting mineralisation from surface to much deeper though, and potentially more wide spreadand better gradeso an argument might exist for significantly more tonnes than a straight ratio add.
All this aside, the results, whilst good were not mind-blowing to the extent the market was prepared to hold (or add to), the recent rise on the stock, which to some extent had built in the results. The next holes will be of interest in confirming the potential modelbut the big hit will come from the next drill program, hopefully to commence by the end of this month.
If well targeted, we could be in for a nice discovery.
Given the corporate incentive to get the options home thoughwho knows what sort of left-field development may transpire?
Cheers!
AQR Price at posting:
37.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held