I'm just looking at the volume and the strength of the sellers...

I'm just looking at the volume and the strength of the sellers at the $1.15 level and there doesn't appear to be a whole lot of pressure to push it much lower. If you look last year it got to $1.40 in Feb 2014 and eventually broke that level but only to $1.25. What I'm seeing now is quite similar on the chart and also in the sentiment of analysts etc.

I note what drove the price from $1.25 to $2.15 in 2 months at the end of 2014 was a very (and unexpectedly) good quarterly report for the September quarter. The market was too bearish.

In terms of my sentiment, hotcopper used to have a short term buy and long term buy variant but now doesn't have that many options. It's a short term hold for me and a medium/long term buy. Can't always pick the bottom but if I can get within 10-15 cents of it I think on a 6-24 time frame I'll be happy enough.