G'day Alpha,I hadnt spotted this seller, but then again I havnt...

G'day Alpha,

I hadnt spotted this seller, but then again I havnt been watching depth for the last two trading days (busy with other stuff). I know that prior to that there was no seller in there so I assume that someone has decided that they do not have the patience to wait - or maybe they have a 15th May tax date, like me :(

Hogie is right, we have a much reduced risk. It does seem however, that whilst all barriers to achieving sales to the US military have now been removed, it may take some months for these sales to amount to appreciable quantities. The companies Newsletter implies that it may be possible that we do not reach profitability by the end of 2003, as previously anticipated.

Ultimately, however, any risk attached to CST has once again been reduced - even in the eyes of those that do not follow CST as closely as some of us. Personally, because of the research that I have done, I know that the risk (ie the possibility of failure) is next to zero. But, of course, that is my view and everyone will have their own.

Remember that break-even for the company is soemwhere less than 500,000 tests per year. (There are 15m tests performed per year in the US and more than 40m in Japan)

Do not overlook the fact that CST have been working with the US military for several years now in getting the product to this stage. The US military have contributed hugely to the trials that were required to achieve all approvals (not just military approvals). The US military did this because they have very serious problems with the existing TST test. More than in any other setting they have periodically been hit with large clusters of false positives. This has been put to a number of factors, including, human reading error and possible product quality. The treatment for TB is a long, daily course of anti-biotics that is not without it's side-effects. Every false-positive person treated is both a cost to the military and a subsequent risk of harm to personnel.

I believe that Oliveoyl is right in that on first glance it is possible to underestimate what the AFEB recommendation means. When you factor it in with the above it becomes clearer that the company will now commence sales into the military. I have been told that the marketing has commenced already - because of the long standing relationship with the US military, I would presume that the company has a pretty good idea of the areas/decision-makers that need to be targeted for the first sales.

Incindentally, contrary to earlier beliefs, the AFEB recommenadation does not have to be signed off by the Surgeon General before the military can take up QFTB. It can happen right away.

As the AFEB report indicates, it is likely that the first area to take up QFTB will be induction centers and pre- and post- deployment (ie before and after overseas postings).

Whilst, the market may be perceiving some time to ramp up sales in the US, on the other side of the coin QFTB-Gold is running ahead of schedule. Whilst the company has stated that approval in Japan can take up to 18 months, there are many forces that, I believe, will reduce this substantially. The market in the US will make CST a healthy, profitable company - Japan will make us all wealthy.