ccc shareholders, page-2

UFC, not sure about blue sky. At this stage even relying on CCC's own guidance, it doesn't seem like CCC will even be profitable this year to me.

In the report, they say targeted production at Vlak is 1.3mt tonnes (not your 1.5mt). At guided $15.2 cost and based on $20 sale price, that's $6.2m profit. Assuming that is cash, and its able to be distributed to CCL, they get 60% of it or $3.7m. Deduct royalties $1m(1.3m*74%*$1) and Vlak is contributing $2.7m towards corporate costs of $14.1m (admin $11.5, other 2.6m) and finance costs of $6.5m.

If you add in JB's guidance of $15m from Penn you get to $18.7m profit or cash whatever you want to call it before corp costs. So it appears that even based on guidance, CCC is still not covering costs despite benefiting pretty heavily from the hedge.

This the context in which they are trying to renegotiate debt, as you say. I can't really see how the fact they are renegotiating debt is a positive. They have too! There is $18 due by June 14. From note 5, cash net of OD is only $3.5m and $800k of that is restricted.

If they do achieve the refinancing, at what cost will it be? For the relatively limited refinancing of converts they did last year, the cost from note 3 ws $1.7m. Really they need the shares higher to refinance more with equity. Perhaps that standby equity facility. I guess that is where you come in.

I suppose in terms of blue sky there is Dewitt. But its still thermal coal in South Africa which to me just doesn't seem to be a profitable business at todays coal prices. CCC itself was not profitable when coal prices were much higher.