If aud stays strong I'm expecting the below prices from...

If aud stays strong I'm expecting the below prices from wholesalers.

$1.90 per watt. For panels
0.50 per watt for inverters
0.15 per watt for mounting system
0.50 per watt for the install + BOS

That's just above your guess of $3.00 per watt.

If Rec prices are fixed at $40, the rebate for a 1.5kw system will be around $6000

$3.00 per watt x 1500watts = $4500

This will allow a retail comapny to sell at $0 and still profit $1500!

Again the above is only vailbe if the aud remains close to parity with the usd and panel prices drop by 10%.

Also using china or taiwanese inveter and reduction in install cost, which is likely to happen due to so many certified installers in the market