cay - mmi value comparison, page-11

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Crazy-Trader

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07/05/18

17:02

Post #: 32935063
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Originally posted by grahod ↑

Compare MMI’s Bauxite Hills project in Queensland to CAY’s potential Cameroon bauxite interest.

MMI are about to ship their first load of bauxite to begin the expected 2MTPA. Market factoring in commissioning risks etc and valuing the company with a market cap of around $400mil. If you read Argonaut’s buy recommendation on the 21st Aug 2017 they are valuing MMI at $550 market cap when 2MTPA is in full swing.

MMI’s Bauxite Hills project has a resource of 92MT, MMI in the coming years ramping up production to 5MTPA and expected mine life is 17 years.

Canyon’s potential interest in Cameroon (Minin Martap/Ngaoundal) has an indicated/inferred resource of 550MT and expected mine life of over 60 years if producing at 7MTPA.

MMI and CAY capex and operating costs similar, CAY most probably going to get a higher amount per ton due to much lower impurities. Both are/will be DSO(Direct Shipping Operations)

CAY are proposing an initial shipment of 5MTPA with an expectation of multiple times that pending rail upgrade.

Bauxite and Alumina markets in full bull trend. RIO expect demand to grow every year until 2030. China holds similar views.

Taking into account what the market is currently valuing MMI at and comparing the size of the respected resources and quality, a valuation of $2.5 - $3.0 Bil market cap for CAY is certainly not out of the question.

If CAY upgrade the rail and IMO they will, exporting 20MTPA will certainly push the share price past $10.

Taking into account of the robust economics, mine life and long term demand for Alumina, finance shouldn’t be a problem either.

Basically it’s a monster deposit, low overburden, high grade with low impurities. The project viability isn’t questionable. The risk is failure to secure the license to mine the deposit. IMO they have it and it’s going through bureaucratic formalities.

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Was thinking CAY was a cheap buy.... but based on Wiki:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mining_industry_of_Cameroon#Cameroon_Overview

CAY Price at posting: 12.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
3 Upvote

1 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last 16.5¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $127.2M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
16.5¢	16.5¢	16.0¢	$68.02K	419.0K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	530643	16.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
17.0¢	1110987	11

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
8	4366729	0.080
3	5025316	0.079
3	3750000	0.076
2	45000	0.070
1	40000	0.067

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.083	150000	2
0.084	345680	4
0.085	364900	4
0.086	430000	2
0.087	230000	1

Last trade - 10.57am 19/11/2024 (20 minute delay)

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cay - mmi value comparison, page-11

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